Gold and silver price trend forecast fourth quarter of 2013Published: 1900-1-1 January 1,1900 Views: 58
Throughout the last round of spot gold rose four main reasons, first, better-than-expected euro zone economic implications for the euro, dollar negative, the second is lower than expected U.S. economic data, three in Asia and China Precious consumption data beautiful, four Egypt, Syria's geopolitical political problems.
But in late September after entering these fundamentals are changing, Syria detente became gold prices plunged the fuse. Market after rediscovering the euro area, the euro area is difficult to give investors the fourth quarter surprise .
Gold prices immediately decided there are two key factors, namely the U.S. dollar strength and physical demand for gold. Before, the dollar continued to fall as well as strong demand for physical gold, pushing gold prices have been rising, but today will gradually withdraw from the Fed QE policy has become Consensus, the end of quantitative easing expectations, the dollar changed the tide, all the way to a strong upward while the demand for physical gold has always been popular to begin to show signs of weakness, particularly in India's gold demand has dropped significantly.
India has the world's largest gold consuming country, its demand for gold in the gold market has an important impact. Earlier this year, the Indian government increased three gold import tariffs, and regulations must be 20% of imports of gold exports. This series of measures which greatly limits India gold imports, making the demand for gold is significantly reduced. According to India's trade sector data, this year, India's gold imports in August from July's 47.5 tons dropped to 2.5 tons, representing a decrease of over 90%, although in September in India traditional peak season for consumption of gold, but in the government under the control of such draconian measures is expected in September of gold imports will decline significantly over last year.
In addition, in September in the past, in October and November is the Western Christmas Supplies orders and production time. According to the laws of history, the fourth quarter driven by Christmas spending, the U.S. economic data are relatively good employment situation will improvement, which the Fed will cut the size of the debt purchase plan, the data provide strong support and based on historical data, the dollar index at the end before Christmas, the probability is 70% stronger, while subject to the impact of a stronger dollar, Gold prices will fall at the end.
Analysts said: The dollar index has recently been underperforming, but in the fourth quarter, the dollar index is expected to regain upward momentum. Fed QE will reduce the size is good for the dollar. Additionally, other major currencies contribute much in the fourth quarter of Japan the recent successful bid for the amp loose monetary policy purposes provided the conditions, the Japanese government is developing a new monetary stimulus program, the yen weakened likely future European context, three quarter due to PMI, export figures were better than expected, the market For the euro-zone economic confidence restored, but the euro zone's own economic situation remains poor, the unemployment rate remained high, the ECB will continue in the fourth quarter, wide currency, tight fiscal policies to promote economic development, and even the possibility of further rate cuts The yen and the euro's weakness in the dollar index will rise in power to get passive.
Is now nearing the end of September, from the current international gold price trend, price trend is still in the doldrums. Has failed, such as the laws of history, as in the traditional peak season in September with outstanding performance, while in the next quarter, by a stronger dollar and physical demand weak double pressure, the future price of gold will likely fall further and may even re-test $ 1,200 / oz mark. want to regain the gold rally may need to wait until next year to cut QE is expected to wait until after implementation, the dollar weakened, India ushered election year, a shift in policy, domestic demand has picked up, it is expected to push up the price of gold again. Related Reading
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